Wheels March 2012 on the future of the Australian car industry

[Marco]

Depressing article in Wheels this month about the likely future of the Aussie car industry after the current generation of models has run their course. Goes for six pages or so but I'll sum up the key points - it's written by Peter Robinson and he's usually pretty well informed with good contacts:

•There won't be a next Falcon, never mind a FWD one. 2016 is the end of the line, full stop.
•There won't be any Ford manufacturing in this country after 2016 either - better to import Mondeos etc than to try and build them here.
•There will still be a design, R&D etc unit that will continue to do projects like the Ranger.
•There had been plans until 2007 for a new global Ford RWD platform for Falcon and other US cars, but that was canned to save money.
•In terms of Holden, the factory is apparently safe but what it will build is up in the air.
•Building the Cruze justified keeping the factory open and the next one in 2016 or so will be built here, but the big question is what else will be built alongside it.
•It probably won't be a Commodore. Most likely scenario is a version of the next-gen Chevy Malibu or Impala from 2019/20.
•Toyota will keep doing what it does for the time being, but exports are being hit hard.

Not looking forward to this all-FWD future we will apparently be having from 2020 or so. Then again, maybe by then everything will be hybrid and on the way to being full-electric and that will be the end of RWD cars for the most part anyway, so it might not matter that you can't get your choice of V8 or turbo six in a big sedan, wagon or ute package anymore?

Still...depressing.

[SSVHM2.5]

Rumers have been circulating for a few years now of the above and I believe they are true. This is part of the reason for buying a V8 as we will not have them to buy in a few years time. We must enjoy the sound while we can.

By the way you can shoot me when I have to drive a electric FWD. F-that....

[Marco]

My thinking was the same - I didn't think in 2007 we'd be able to enjoy V8s for many more years (in fact I thought we'd have $2+ petrol by now) so I got in before it was too late. With some luck I'll be able to buy one more V8 Commodore or Caprice before that's all over.

[CALDIR]

Hi

I am guessing we are going to see a lot more V8 AMG's on the road in the next couple of years.

regards,

Richard
HRTSEN

[awesome _vzss]

The future of Australian car manufacturers is pretty scary,I hope the rumours never come true but unfortunately it'll be the end sooner or later.
A sad day it will be,when we have to choose from a hybrid or electric pos.

[boggers007]

I drive a FWD 4cylinder now which is good for getting me from A to B but i always look forward to the day i can get back in a dirty big rwd v8. Be sad if in 5yrs I can't buy one or that its a fwd version just because of the yanks.

[Phillshz]

I drive a FWD 4cylinder now which is good for getting me from A to B but i always look forward to the day i can get back in a dirty big rwd v8. Be sad if in 5yrs I can't buy one or that its a fwd version just because of the yanks.

I sold my neat HZ 308 Premier in 2004 and LRP was about a $1.10 a litre then, bought a AE92 Corolla for A-B transport and had it for 8-9yrs so i could buy a property (never ever stopped and just required normal maintainence) Recently talked the wife into agreeing on myself having a V8 again so found a mint VZ SS L76 as now might well be the last chance for myself to have one of these traditional aussie V8 cars.

91 ULP is almost non existant and $1.42-5 a litre and 98 is $1.60 litre.

The running cost between a small 4 and big 8 is a big shock, though the V6 holdens and fords are efficient on fuel for what they are, it`s the pain at the hip pocket that is turning people away from the local large car market and also the range of vehicles to choose from these days. The times are defiantly changing :(

Cheers Phill

[SSer]

The really sad day for car enthusiasts who love V8's etc will be when petrol is either so ridiculously expensive we cant afford it, or it simply runs out. If 2020 comes and V8s are gone, as long as we can still find PULP to fuel our (by then) historic cars, then so be it.

[Marco]

Yeah. One upside if the 2019/20 Malibu/Impala scenario is correct is that we've still got seven or eight years to get in and order another brand new V8 Holden if that's what we want to do (assuming we don't see a doubling in the price of petrol or something by then). I'd been thinking SS Sportwagon or Caprice for my next family car and I'll need one in five or so years at a guess, so, happy days in the short term.

Of course, it could all be wrong and there is another generation of RWD Commodores in Holden's future, who knows :)

[Martin_D]

The really sad day for car enthusiasts who love V8's etc will be when petrol is either so ridiculously expensive we cant afford it, or it simply runs out. If 2020 comes and V8s are gone, as long as we can still find PULP to fuel our (by then) historic cars, then so be it.

Even if Holden and Ford leave Australian production there will still be plenty of brand new V8s for sale for many years to come, so dont sweat it :)

[VY-SV8]

the day i go to my garage and fire up a FWD electric car for a quick spurt up Mt Glorious and out to the dam is the day i die inside. I'll always keep a V8 of some sort in my garage, even if the current monster is a pain to keep running and expensive to run. I just have to have my daily/weekly dose of raw power and V8 aural pleasure. You should ask my missus, the first thing i do when i et back from holidays is fire up the beast to tickle my ear pussies. Can't stand not having that loudness and adrenalin under my right foot.

[Goggles]

read this article a few days ago.

not the least bit shocked about the scenarios it paints for the aussie car industry.

yes it will be disappointing that a lot of factory workers, designers, engineers could be affected.

however, we live in a global world now, and there is no going back.

already, I dictate what tv programs I watch and on what schedule because I can, rather than relying on old school tv to tell me how to manage my time. these programs mostly come from places other than Australia.

my mobile phone is made in asia, as is my tv, xbox and bluray/pvr. I could go on.

the engine and gearbox in my SSV come from mexico, and who knows what else in it come from other parts of the world.

I have no issue if my next V8 Commodore is designed and built outside Australia, just as long as I have the choice of getting one.

I suspect that there will be V8 and RWD Commodores past 2020, but due to economies of scale (and this is critical), it will likely be built outside Australia.

[Angeldust]

hang on to your v8's, no matter what they are, eventually anything with a factory v8 will be a classic.

[aussiemuscle308]

however, we live in a global world now, and there is no going back.

Sadly the only way to save them is another war in the pacific that cuts australia off, like WW2 did. thereby making the govt and dumb aussies realise that australian manufacturing is essential.

[Angeldust]

well they do say war is good for the economy...

[02PRUV]

I sold my neat HZ 308 Premier in 2004 and LRP was about a $1.10 a litre then, bought a AE92 Corolla for A-B transport and had it for 8-9yrs so i could buy a property (never ever stopped and just required normal maintainence) Recently talked the wife into agreeing on myself having a V8 again so found a mint VZ SS L76 as now might well be the last chance for myself to have one of these traditional aussie V8 cars.

91 ULP is almost non existant and $1.42-5 a litre and 98 is $1.60 litre.

The running cost between a small 4 and big 8 is a big shock, though the V6 holdens and fords are efficient on fuel for what they are, it`s the pain at the hip pocket that is turning people away from the local large car market and also the range of vehicles to choose from these days. The times are defiantly changing :(

Cheers Phill

Get your V8's setup on E85. Only $1.29 in canberra at the moment and I still get 300km to a tank in a ute.

[Martin_D]

well they do say war is good for the economy...

Who we going to go to war with? Fordforums? :lol:

[Skedy]

ford was supposed too can the falcon after the AU disaster....
then they saved themselves with BA/BF for a few years and that started to go downhill
then they said they where shutting the engine plant and going too imported motors
then it was reopened till 2014
now its been reopened until 2016


what i have learnt from all this. no matter what rumours are around dont trust anything until it has actually happened...
wheels and motor do get it wrong alot of the time